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Case studies
An expansion strategy for ATRAK a.s.: a weighted model across six indicators, 34 countries screened out, and a market-entry call per country. A consulting project within CEMS at VŠE.
ATRAK waited to be approached by customers. The question was whether a market could be picked before the demand arrived.
ATRAK a.s. supplies the systems that bill overflights and process flight plans — a field where the customer is not a company but a country's air navigation provider. Over thirty years on the market, part of the CSG Aerospace group, customers from Czechia to Oman. The solution runs on-premise, a cloud version is in development. The company grew reactively: it waited to be approached. The task was to find a right-sized market it could enter on its own initiative.
Before a single criterion was set we asked: where do you see the greatest value, what separates an ideal customer from an unprofitable one, what is the smallest customer that makes sense, and where do you deliberately not want to go. The answers did not tweak the model cosmetically — they set its weights. Air traffic growth carried fifty percent because the company itself named it the most important signal.
There were two no-go criteria: EU sanctions and the company's decision not to operate in Russia. That removed 34 countries. The rest of the world went through a weighted model across six indicators — inbound air traffic growth (50 %), purchasing power parity and urbanisation (17.5 % each), number of airports, ICT services imports and software spending (5 % each). Further filters followed: income classification and the number of international airports, so that neither over-mature nor unviably small markets remained.
For the countries that passed we established whether overflights are billed automatically, semi-manually or by hand. That matters more than market size: where a modern system already runs there is nothing to sell, and where billing is manual the question is whether anyone will buy at all.
The shortlist held four countries. Kyrgyzstan came out as the most suitable market and the recommendation was to enter now: traffic complexity is rising, a national digitalisation effort is under way, and the market is still undeveloped enough to allow a defensible position ahead of competitors. Bhutan and Malawi we recommended observing and verifying demand. For Mauritius the conclusion said entry is not recommended.
This is not an opinion about markets, it is a method. The weights are written down, so are the exclusion criteria, and for every country you can see why it ended where it did. Change one weight and it recalculates and can be defended again — and that is the whole difference between analysis and a hunch.
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