The brief
ATRAK a.s. supplies the systems that bill overflights and process flight plans — a field where the customer is not a company but a country's air navigation provider. Over thirty years on the market, part of the CSG Aerospace group, customers from Czechia to Oman. The solution runs on-premise, a cloud version is in development. The company grew reactively: it waited to be approached. The task was to find a right-sized market it could enter on its own initiative.
Interview with the CEO
We asked the CEO about customer value, profitable customer profiles, the smallest viable customer and markets to exclude. The answers determined the model’s weights. Air traffic growth carried fifty percent because the company identified it as the most important signal.
Screen out first, weigh second
There were two no-go criteria: EU sanctions and the company's decision not to operate in Russia. That removed 34 countries. The rest of the world went through a weighted model across six indicators — inbound air traffic growth (50 %), purchasing power parity and urbanisation (17.5 % each), number of airports, ICT services imports and software spending (5 % each). Further filters followed: income classification and the number of international airports, so that neither over-mature nor unviably small markets remained.
Ask how billing works today
For the countries that passed, we assessed whether overflights are billed automatically, semi-manually or by hand. We then considered the need for a replacement system and whether demand for a new system could be verified.
A call per country, including where not to go
The shortlist held four countries. Kyrgyzstan came out as the most suitable market and the recommendation was to enter now: traffic complexity is rising, a national digitalisation effort is under way, and the market is still undeveloped enough to allow a defensible position ahead of competitors. Bhutan and Malawi we recommended observing and verifying demand. For Mauritius the conclusion said entry is not recommended.
What to take from it
The model documents its weights, exclusion criteria and reasons for each country’s result. Changing a weight allows the team to recalculate the ranking and examine the recommendation.